Is the Covid-19 outbreak nature’s way of telling us we messed up?

David Smith is a father to a six-month-old, a two-year-old and a five-year-old. The head of a homey family, Smith is concerned for his children's health, caused by the air pollution in London: "there is a likelihood that two out of three of them will have asthma … that they will have between five and 13% reduced lung capacity … all because of the air that they are breathing in." The 49-year-old father set up an online campaign, Little Ninja UK, where he urges other parents to open their eyes to the dangers of air pollution and encourage the government to take action.

"There is obviously a massive dip [in air pollution levels] because of the coronavirus lockdown," says Smith. He explains this "dip" to be closely related to the lack of traffic on the roads due to the government-imposed lockdown in the UK, where citizens are encouraged to stay indoors to prevent the virus from spreading. In effect, less traffic leads to less air pollution.

"NO2 levels have fallen quite dramatically since the lockdown," agrees Air Quality News editor Thomas Barrette. "NO2 is primarily a transport-based air pollutant so the link between the two is obvious."

According to the Department for Environment Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA) website, the UK government has 164 monitoring sites for air quality. In a Guardian article last year, a pollutant map released by campaigners showed that almost 2000 locations across the UK had levels of air pollution that exceeded safety limits. A year later, new satellite images show that air pollution has "literally dropped overnight," says Barrette.

Smith is positive that such an outcome is a "massive win for children" and their health. Scientists proved that road traffic is responsible for about 80% of NO2 emissions and according to research carried out by Smith, the highest air pollution levels in London are during the toxic school run on main roads. "Pollutants like NO2 are heavier and denser than air. They usually hang in a blanket of fumes around schools that kids have to walk through and breathe since they are smaller and closer to the ground," he explains. "Now, obviously, they are not exposed to that."

Smith highlights that the change in air pollution levels also shows "a real decrease of children who are suffering from asthma attacks … during the coronavirus."

But will it be possible to keep air pollution levels low even after the lockdown?

"It is not an unusual circumstance that air pollution has dropped so much," says Barrette. "It is easy to say: look this is how we can get rid of air pollution, but it is impossible to take away everybody's cars just overnight."

Smith is also hopeful to keeping air pollution trends low in the future, yet he argues that the numbers could jump back to where they used to be in the past since it is unlikely for roads to have "less cars … than before."

On the other hand, Dr Gabriel da Silva, a lecturer at The University of Melbourne, released an article predicting that air pollution could surge to levels worse than previously seen, as the economy will try to recover what it lost during the pandemic. Freelance environmental journalist based in Chicago, Susan Cosier, adds that "unless there are some requirements for factories to be open only during certain hours … there could be an uptake in CO2 emissions."

Dr Gabriel's article compares the current economic situation to the 2008 global financial crisis, when greenhouse gas emissions sharply rose as world economy embarked on a journey of recovery.

This opens up room for concern. "The fact that one virus like this can suddenly ruin world economy, shows that it only benefits a small amount of people, making ridiculous amounts of cash," says Smith.

A weak economy could also slow "the push towards renewables and clean vehicles … if all the quick solutions will be going back to fossil fuels," says Barrette. There is also the risk that environmental policies could be relaxed during this time of crisis.

Cosier brings up an example from home. A medical equipment sterilizer plant in Atlanta, Sterigenics, was allowed to re-open for three months to help combat the shortage of personal protective equipment during the coronavirus outbreak. The plant was shut down after reported to emit dangerous levels of ethylene oxide (a hazardous, cancerogenic air pollutant). "Even though it is only allowed to operate for three months," says Cosier, "there is still that risk that they will be emitting the product."

However, this risk could be up for debate. Julie Taylor, 61 and Ben Thornbury, 14, are neighbours from Malmesbury who set up a community dedicated to keeping their town clean. Taylor suspects that factories will not have enough money to mass-produce once the lockdown is over, while others would have shut down completely. Thornbury is quick to add that a lot of this could be linked to the members of the public: "Take toilet rolls, for example, there is a need to produce it, because consumers are bulk buying it."

Smith also agrees. He states that the "system of making things as cheaply and quickly as possible … is damaging the earth and obviously slowly killing us."

The Covid-19 lockdown has made us ambitious to hope that we can keep air pollution levels at a low, even in the future. "I think politicians have plans that need 10 years before they expect to level under the EU guidelines, but this pandemic shows they are not being ambitious enough," says Barrette.

Smith believes that "it is the time of awareness, so the change has to come from us. It is important to start looking after our children more than looking after the economy." Why drive when you can walk, why fly when you can have an online meeting and why buy products you do not necessarily need?